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SAE Short Course

Course summary for SAE Conference Short Course, Bucharest June 19, 2026

Small area estimation is of crucial importance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A modern Bayesian treatment will be presented and illustrated using a range of examples. Area-level (Fay–Herriot) and unit-level models will be presented. Unit-level models for both linear and generalized linear models will be discussed. Fast computation is carried out with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method, which is embedded within the SUMMER and surveyPrev R packages. Hyperprior specification is via penalized complexity priors. Between-area variation will be modeled using independent and spatial random effects. For the latter, the Besag, York, Mollié model will be described.

Short Course Slides

  • Lecture 1: Context and Motivation: Slides
  • Lecture 2: Introduction to Bayes: Slides
  • Lecture 3: Area-Level Models: Slides
  • Lecture 4: Unit-Level Models: Slides
  • Lecture 5: Further Topics: Slides
  • Lecture 6: Software: Slides

R Packages:

surveyPrev with vignette on prevalence mapping and vignette on creating indicators

SUMMER See the cran site for various vignettes

DHS Data:

Demographic and Heath Surveys (DHS) data can be downloaded, after registering for an account here

When requesting specific datasets, remember to request the GPS data (locations of clusters)

Web Apps

DHS R Shiny App

MICS R Shiny App (beta test version)

Pre-modeled App

Papers:

Wakefield, Fuglstad, Riebler, Godwin, Wilson, Clark (2019). Estimating under-five mortality in space and time in a developing world context. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 28, 2614-2634

Wakefield, Ononek, Pedersen (2020). Small Area Estimation for disease prevalence mapping. International Statistical Review, 88, 398-418

Dong, Wu, Li, Wakefield (2026). Toward a principled workflow for prevalence mapping using household survey data. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 14, 209–237

Vignette for Dong, Wu, Li, Wakefield (2026). Toward a principled workflow for prevalence mapping using household survey data. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 14, 209–237

Wakefield, Gao, Fuglstad, Li (2026). The two cultures for prevalence mapping: small area estimation and model-based geostatistics, To appear (with discussion). Statistical Science

Additional Materials at the sae4health website